Valdelei Peretti Filho

The objective of this reserarch waws to verficy the effects of the composition and concentration fo the Brazilian export tariff by technological intensity on the remproal dynamics and the duration of this trade flow with Argentina, China na the United States between 2000 and 2017. The initial hyhpothesis was that composition and concentration of the technological intensity initial hypothesis was that composition and concentration of the technological intensidty bilateral trade agenda extends the duration of domestic exports to Argenitna, China and the United States between 2000 and 2017. Two distinct survival analysis methodologies were used: the joint model or survival panel and the discrete probit, logit models, and clog-log. In contínuos models, Weibull and exponential distributions were used in the joint model. For discrete models, probit, logit models and clog-log. Were considered in the random effects panel data. The Kapler-Meier estimator was also used to analyze the effects of the composition of the Brazilian export tariff by technological contente on the time dynamics and duration of this trade flow with the three trading partners analyzed. In general, Brazilian trade with Argentina was caracterizes by the export of higher value-added goods and the importation on low-value-addded agricultural products. On the other hand, transcations with China and the United States were based on the sale of low vallue-added goods and the domestic acquisition of high value-added goods. The results suggest tha t discrete models have better results in estimates, especially clog-log. In addition, the composition and concentration of the bilateral export tariff, effective real of bilateral trade flows by Brazil intensify and promote the duration of domestic exports for each conuntry comercial partner. However, the current quantity and initial value exported also contributed to the prolongation of domestic exports to Argenitna, China and the United States from 2000 to 2017, albeit modestly because of the magnitutde of the estimated parameters. The exported on duration, also showed a positive effect on the continuation of domestic exports with each trading partner. This variable also suggests that panel and survival data models can be used together. Multiple spells and time increased the continuity of domestic product sales in Argentina, China and the United States by about 67,96% between 2000 and 2017. The intercept evidenced the effect of negative dependence of Brazilian bilateral trade with its Amin tradin partners. Moreover, the initial hypothesis of this paper that composition of the bilateral trade agenda by intensity extends the duration of domestic exports was corroborated Only for the medium-high technology sector in bilateral trade flows with the three trading partners. The Herfindalhl-Hirschmann Index and realtive share also contributed positively to the duration of national exports to Argentina, China and the United States, indicating that the concentration of this trade flow by technological increases bilateral trade with these trading partners.