Gabrielle Mari de Oliveira

The objective of this dissertation is to perform an empirical analysis of the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy and the influence of monetary regime on this policy in the main countries of Latin America from 2007 to 2019. In this objective, it seeks to clearly understand the impacts of macroprudential policy on variables such as inflation rate, real GDP and private credit to the non-financial sector (representing the repercussions in the financial sector). Robustness tests are also carried out using the variables consumption, investment, exchange rate and default rate. In addition, the structure of macroprudential policy will be presented in the sample of countries; its relationship with monetary policy; and the possible channels of transmission of macroprudential policy. The countries analyzed are: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Costa Rica, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay, divided into countries that follow the Inflation Target Regime (ITR) and those that adopt another monetary structure for a comparative analysis allowing to observe the differences in the effects of macroprudential policy in different monetary contexts. The methodology used in this research is the panel of autorregressive vectors (PVAR). The results show that in the ITR countries, the macroprudential policy achieves its objective of reducing credit and the other macroeconomic variables have the expected behavior, that is, this policy is capable of decreasing the GDP, the rate of inflation, consumption, investment and the rate default. In addition, the results suggest that both macroprudential and monetary policy have similar effects on variables, having related channels that jointly affect aggregate demand. On the other hand, macroprudential policy appears to have contradictory impacts in non- ITR countries, increasing credit, GDP, consumption and investment and has no effect on the default rate and the exchange rate. These conclusions indicate that the two policies are not aligned in this group of countries.