Andrey Ivale Menezes

The aim of this work is to investigate the duration and the probability of exit from the Brazilian unemployment in the period 2002-2011, applying the methodology of survival analysis for the data of the Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego. The results suggest that the likelihood that women, people with higher levels of education, non-white individuals and those who are not heads of households remain unemployed is higher. The parametric estimations suggest that increased unemployment reduces the risk of exit unemployed while increasing the average yield of the worker and GDP growth increases the risk of out of it. Furthermore, it was found that the risk of exit from unemployment is higher in Belo Horizonte and lower Salvador. We observed a trend of reduction in the duration of unemployment in Brazil, mainly between 2008 and 2011. Finally, evidence was found of the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of models with binary to capture the effect of regions.