Walberti Saith

Due to the instability that permeates the agribusiness use tools for better planning is needed. There are several tools that allow the risk is minimized among these hedge is an option, although not the only one. The general objective of this work is to estimate the hedge's optimal rate for market cattle through static and dynamic econometric models based on the theory of variance minimization, allowing the creation of strategies in futures markets to the agents involved in the cattle market in the state of Rondônia. The series of spot prices that will be used in this study was provided by CEPEA/ESALQ and covers the period from August 2002 to June de 2011. Already the series of future price that will be used is listed on the BM&F/BOVESPA and consists the same period. The Econometric models are estimate OLS, VAR and GARCH-M with series in daily and weekly frequency, in addition, the models were estimated with the variables in return, originals and first difference. The results indicated that static models show better performance in risk reduction than dynamic models. The ratios estimated by models with series in weekly frequency are in almost cases, majority than series in diary frequency with return originals and first difference. The models estimated with the series in frequency diary show low effectiveness with return originals and first difference. Between the treatments types the originals series show high optimal hedge ratios and effectiveness than series in return.