Aline Queiroz de Assis Andreotti Pancera

Aiming to understand the spatial integration and the consequences of exogenous shocks in the bovine market, the current study has as main goal to identify if structural changes in supply chain and in the dynamics of the prices altered the central market and the spatial market integration of the beef cattle in Brazil between 2006 and 2017. Thus, this research intends to test the structural breaks in the series; test the existence of a central market, investigate the cattle beef market integration considering transfer costs and determine the factors resulting in the changes in prices behavior. According to the structural breaks test the series was divided into three smaller samples defined by Period I, II and III. In the Period I, the region of São Paulo was the one that presented the deepest influence on prices comparing to other ones and was the central market. In the Period II and III, Mato Grosso do Sul become the central market. This way, the results pointed out that the regional changes on beef cattle agribusiness altered the same economic market and the central market. Thus, it was needed to test the prices co-integration among regions and to study the changing that might justify the market integration. The models used to test the co-integration were the Threshold Autoregressive Models – TAR and the Threshold Error Correction Model – ECM-TAR. The results of the TAR Model indicated that the same economic market was spatially integrated in the Periods I, II and III, but for the ECM-TAR model, the market didn´t co-integrated in the Period I, and it was partially integrated in the Period III and integrated in the II. The analyses of the factors resulting in the spatial market integration have pointed out a relation between the traded volume, stock of cattle, weather and concentration ratio and the integration. The study identified that the changes on the productive structure of industry have interfered in the central market and the spatial market integration. Indicating that beef cattle market presented modification that interfered in the integration dynamics. Therefore the present research highlights the importance of the test of common market e structural breaking point for the studies of Brazilian beef cattle spatial market integration.