Érica Yumi Onoue

The objective of this study was to analyze the economic determinants (domestic income, real effective exchange rate and financial crisis of 2008-2009) and sociodemographic (life expectancy and prevalence rate of chronic diseases) of the import demand of pharmaceutical products for a group of developing countries between 2001 and 2016. For this purpose, a panel data model of fourteen countries was used, highlighting: South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Thailand and Turkey. The results of the estimates were statistically significant and with expected signs, with GDP per capita, life expectancy and prevalence rate of chronic diseases positively affecting this demand. The real effective exchange rate presented a negative effect. The impact of the financial crisis dummy variable was significant and positive, contrary to expectations. This fact is related to the characteristics of the pharmaceutical area in these nations, which would enable them to be outsourced under conditions that are more profitable. We conclude that the economic and sociodemographic variables are relevant to understand the behavior of the demand for import of these goods. Considering that the process of population aging and the growth of chronic diseases in the analyzed nations has significantly affected this demand, evidence-based public policy actions are needed to reduce risk factors (for example smoking, alcoholism, physical inactivity and malnutrition ) related to these diseases and improve people's quality of life, consequently, reducing the external dependence of these countries on the pharmaceutical sector.